Anecdote versus data: how environmental scares outrun the evidence
Diane Boyd warns about the limits of anecdote behind super pack stories, Bjørn Lomborg and Andrew Revkin trace where climate alarm comes from, and Steven Rinella brings skepticism to media claims. All three ask for measured evidence over vivid stories, which is a useful habit for reading any headline about nature.
Why do environmental scares outrun the evidence? Show answer
Vivid stories, scary or comforting, travel faster than measurements. The speakers say measurements should set the size of the worry.
What three things should you ask for before believing a frightening story about nature? Show answer
The count, the baseline and the alternative explanation.
How does Diane Boyd answer the claim that wolves halved the Yellowstone elk herd? Show answer
With arithmetic: 35 wolves could not kill 10,000 elk in two years. The herd was far above what the land could support and a record winter killed huge numbers.
Why does Boyd doubt a 400-wolf super pack? Show answer
Wolves live in family groups and defend territories. The largest Yellowstone pack she knows of reached 34, and typical packs run 10 to 15.
What is Andrew Revkin's formula for reading a disaster headline? Show answer
Risk equals hazard times exposure, factoring in vulnerability. Climate may change the hazard, but people and property in harm's way keep growing.
Why was Hurricane Michael called unprecedented, according to Revkin? Show answer
Only the damage was unprecedented, because there had been no town there before.
Where does Revkin say the 12-years-to-doomsday idea came from? Show answer
From spin around the 2018 UN climate panel special report, not from the report itself.
What survey finding does Bjørn Lomborg challenge? Show answer
That 60 percent of people in rich countries believe warming will likely lead to human extinction. He says the UN climate panel does not say that.
What is Gell-Mann amnesia? Show answer
You notice how wrong reporting is on a subject you know well, then forget that and trust coverage of subjects you do not know.
What is Steven Rinella's position on chronic wasting disease? Show answer
Early alarming reports did not hold up and there is no confirmed human case, but he would not knowingly eat infected meat and wants money spent to keep deer meat safe.
Where do Revkin and Lomborg differ? Show answer
Lomborg trusts cost-benefit analysis. Revkin says models miss real-world friction and moral imperatives, and he worries more about the worst case.
Does this skepticism mean environmental problems are fake? Show answer
No. Wolves do kill livestock and elk, warming is real, and chronic wasting disease is always fatal to the animals that get it.