Restraint or engagement? The fight over America's role in endless wars

September 29, 2026 · 20 min read

Dave Smith and Ian Carroll argue the terror wars and interventions like Yemen were costly mistakes driven by interests, while Mike Baker takes a pragmatist's view and Vivek Ramaswamy calls for a mission-first defense policy. Comparing them clarifies the real choices behind slogans like America First.

12 questions on this insight. Answer in your head, then open the card.
What do the four guests show about the phrase America First? Show answer

It hides very different positions, from Dave Smith's restraint to Mike Baker's engagement to Vivek Ramaswamy's mission-first defense with allies paying.

What does Dave Smith call the war hawks' favorite tool? Show answer

The unfalsifiable counterfactual: the claim that things would have been worse if America had stayed out, which he says they must prove.

What costs does Smith attribute to the last 25 years of war? Show answer

Four to five million dead civilians, entire nations destroyed, $8 trillion spent, a $36 trillion national debt and tens of thousands of veteran suicides.

What is insurgent math? Show answer

Smith's term for the way each innocent death in a campaign like the Yemen drone war creates new recruits for the enemy.

What is Ian Carroll's claim about how the CIA was founded? Show answer

He argues it was founded by corporate lawyers such as the Dulles brothers of Sullivan and Cromwell, to use government power on behalf of business.

Why does Carroll call terrorism an elastic label? Show answer

Because the concept is elusive, so once a state targets terrorists, anyone can become an enemy simply by being called one.

What is Mike Baker's vacuum argument? Show answer

Nations act in self-interest, and if the United States stops influencing the world, hostile actors will fill the space it leaves.

What contradiction does Baker see in the America First base? Show answer

People who want no money spent overseas would have to justify Trump's idea of owning Gaza, which goes against avoiding foreign involvement.

What does Baker concede about the Iraq war? Show answer

That America's post-9/11 response was justified based on a lie about weapons of mass destruction.

By what mission does Ramaswamy say the military should be judged? Show answer

Protecting the homeland, winning wars and deterring them.

Why does Ramaswamy want allies to pay for protection? Show answer

Because the United States carries a roughly $34 trillion debt, and allies with skin in the game take fewer reckless risks.

Where does Ramaswamy part from pure restraint? Show answer

He wants spending on homeland defense to increase, citing hypersonic missiles, EMP attacks and cyber threats, even as foreign interventionism shrinks.

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This is the short form. The full insight has every expert's reasoning, their own words and the sources.