Why winners' advice travels badly: survivor bias and the stories nobody hears
Physicist Bernardo Huberman points to the survivor bias behind famous dropouts, Francis Ngannou talks about luck and the stories nobody hears, and Jeff Dye and Joe Rogan discuss heroes whose advice doesn't transfer. They give a reason to be careful with success stories: the people who did the same thing and failed are not there to be heard, and what worked for one person's circumstances may not work for yours.
Winners' advice travels badly for two reasons: the people who did the same thing and lost are not there to be heard, and what worked in one person's life may not work in yours. Three conversations make the case, and none of them says to stop working hard or to stop having heroes.
Research physicist Bernardo Huberman, asked by his son Andrew Huberman whether a PhD is still worthwhile, cautions against idolizing college-dropout founders. We only hear the success stories, he says, and not from the person loading a landscaping truck after their startup failed. Facebook had predecessors that died, Apple nearly went under before Steve Jobs returned, and Elon Musk, he says, has so far won every coin flip. His conclusion is not to avoid trying. If you want to emulate these founders, calculate the odds and build a strong foundation.
Francis Ngannou, a former UFC heavyweight champion, has the kind of story people build lessons on. He never saw a real gym until he was 22, only started training at 27, and was sent back six times before making it across on the seventh. Yet he says many people have stories stronger than his that simply have not been seen, calls himself very blessed and lucky, and suggests he may have become the UFC's first African champion because so few Africans had a chance. So he builds gyms, and his dream is that nobody has to leave Africa the way he did to fight at world-class level.
Comedian Jeff Dye raises a second problem, which holds even when the winner is telling the truth. His friend Bert Kreischer had tweeted that people shouldn't quit drinking. Dye loves him, but the diagnosis is that Kreischer and Patrice O'Neal are so one of a kind that their advice doesn't work for anyone else, and the listener has to answer "that doesn't apply to me". Their lives are different from yours, Dye says, and if you have a problem, it's okay to quit. Joe Rogan suspects the difference between people who drink is partly genetic. The article adds that anyone unsure where they stand on drinking should ask a doctor or other qualified professional.
The three differ on what the filter is. For Huberman it is chance, for Ngannou it is opportunity, and for Dye and Rogan it is the person. There is also a real tension about effort. Rogan says that if a pill could give you energy and strength everyone would take it: "it's called hard work". Ngannou says champions are usually not the most talented but the hardest workers. Those are statements from people who won, set beside Huberman's reminder that we do not hear from the ones who lost. The conversations do not resolve this. Ngannou holds both at once: discipline is his answer for the individual, and luck and access are his answer for why he is the one being interviewed.
What to do with it: when a success story moves you, ask who tried the same thing and is not being interviewed. Calculate the odds before you copy a bet, and build a strong foundation first. Test advice against your own life, and ask what the result cost. Copy qualities such as kindness and discipline, not a one-of-a-kind person's lifestyle. Keep heroes off the pedestal. And if you are the one who made it, name the luck and point at the people who weren't seen.